Is alcohol in structural decline? Not quite. Here’s what’s really happening: 👇

Post-COVID sales dips 📉  have sparked headlines about the “death of alcohol,” especially among Gen Z. But the truth is more nuanced, and far more optimistic.

Yes, sales boomed during COVID, triggering massive supply chain ramp-ups. Think about it: people were stuck at home with high disposable income (not travelling nor going out with low interest rates on their mortgage). What we’re seeing now is a reset from those historic highs, not a collapse. Strip out pandemic noise, and sales are still above 2019 levels. The long-term trajectory remains strong. The graph below clearly illustrate the trend in the US. 

Meanwhile, Gen Z are drinking less but not for the reasons we’ve been told. Rabobank’s recent report (https://lnkd.in/gF8dS4BA) challenges the overused “wellness” and “social media shame” narratives. The real reason? Disposable income.

Most of Gen Z consumers are still too young, early in their careers, and financially constrained just like millennials and boomers were at that stage. When adjusted for income, their alcohol spend is actually right on trend.

The real shift is demographic: Gen Z are more diverse, more digital, and less tied to traditional drinking rituals. RTDs and Spirits are gaining ground early. Wine? Maybe not so much. There is a big job to do to dust off this category and create exciting wine innovations, to attract and recruit Gen Z, and make them start their journey into wine. 

The key for brands: Don’t misread a life stage as a generational rejection. Gen Z will come but they’ll demand more authenticity, representation, and relevance.

✅ The alcohol category isn’t dying. It’s evolving. Slowly, strategically, and still full of opportunity.

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